Durable Design: Constructing Practical, Enjoyable, and Sustainable Urban Environments

Air pollution, traffic congestion, litter, noise, and patchwork concrete – elements synonymous with the concept of a city and simultaneously at odds with the conception of what a city could be – green spaces, intuitive and efficient public transport, cycleways and walkways. Though form follows function, it seems most of our urban spaces are not optimised for pedestrians, business, social engagement, nor vehicular traffic, and instead constitute a fairly ‘unhappy middle’ for all. Part product of poor design, part product of inadequate foresight, and part product of necessity during development (from the Main streets of a horse-drawn cart era), the urban landscape is often seen to represent an inevitable inconvenience (or ‘necessary evil’) (1) as an evolved compromise between these competing requirements for different users. Though all urban design must balance such factors as local demography, local industry requirements, commuter demands, continually evolving technology, and population shifts, present conditions are of languorous and reactionary tendencies towards meeting the needs of urban dwellers and commuters, and the ever pressing need for climate action.

From another perspective it is important to consider the two-way influence the urban landscape of cities on inhabitants, and the manner in which decisions around city design can impact and influence populations in positive ways; leading the very direction in which cities develop, rather than simply reacting to the purported needs of users. As a case study, though ostensibly inseparable in the minds of many international jetsetters, Amsterdam and bicycle riding have not always experienced a loving relationship and given the turbulent politics and protests of the 1970s. Examining the forces at play during this period, it is apparent that for Amsterdam, the transition from an automobile-centric to active transport friendly city would perhaps not have eventuated without the combination of both strong grassroots activism and bold top-down leadership on cycling infrastructure (2), leading the city in a very different direction to the urban and social landscape we see today. In essence, though an impetus for change existed in the hearts of a vocal cycling population, Amsterdam represents a city that grew into a cycling utopia and not simply as the perpetuation of an inherent and established status quo.

Though construction of a cycling-centric CBD is not appropriate for a great many cities due to factors ranging from local topography to climatic demands, capitalising and building on sustainable modes of transportation that aim to increase social capital and make urban centres safer and more accessible places for work and leisure is the important underlying principle. No single rigid solution and no pre-specified set of rules exists to guide this kind of change and development; cities must engage with the structures already on the ground and actively work with and respect the existing complexities (27). Though what is the right fit for one city or neighbourhood will unlikely suit another, we can always learn from the successful examples already deployed around the globe. Practical and pragmatic approaches to this somewhat nebulous idealism of improved urban design might include upgraded cycling infrastructure (3), the ‘pedestrianization’ of main streets and central areas (4), careful and considered attention to improving the specific pathways and areas of natural people movement in cities (23), and realising the central role that well-designed public transport can play in increasing social capital – including among socially disadvantaged groups (5).

Unfortunately the present paradigm of suburb-living city-commuting with the concomitant protraction of commute time seems suboptimal for health and wellbeing (6), a situation likely exacerbated by the trend towards urban sprawl. Outside direct negative health impacts of the urban environment mediated through exposure to air pollution (7), infectious diseases (a risk especially true for developing and non-OECD nations (8, 9)), motor vehicle accident risk, and unhealthy diets (10), there are implications for the social and preventive health activities that necessarily come second to work commitments. With more time expended commuting, individuals have less time available to invest in their own health - with food preparation, physical activity, and sleep representing the most sacrificed domains (11, 12). Given both current and expected population growth in urban areas, current underdeveloped public transport systems represent a kind of kryptonite exacerbating traffic congestion and reliance on private transport (24).

Additionally, the environmental (13, 25), social, and negative health impacts of urban sprawl (12, 13, 14, 15) represent inextricably related challenges as a case study of Ontario illustrates, linking the urban sprawl land use with higher per-capita energy use, automobile dependence, emphasis on private realms over public space, increased servicing cost, and longer commutes (16). To further emphasise, it can be seen that although a distal factor, the design of urban and build environments represents a central common determinant of both human health and environmental impact, (the latter importantly being critically related to the former) (26).

 Though difficult to quantify and spread across a range of sectors certainly inclusive of human health and environmental sustainability, there can be many anticipated benefits in the adoption of a salutogenic approach to the design of the urban landscape that prioritises active commuting, efficient public transportation, social green spaces, and pedestrian activity. Chronic lifestyle diseases of obesity, type 2 diabetes, and hypertension are likely influenced by the walkability of urban environments (17) and even small increases in daily physical activity across a large proportion of the population are likely to yield health benefits (18). Promotion and support of active commuting where possible is also likely to bring population health benefits (19) and self-evident benefits for carbon emissions (20, 21). Furthermore, investment in efficient and inclusive public transport systems that both replace the need for private transport, permit urban intensification (22), and reduce the deleterious health and environmental effects of sprawl (13) represents a true cornerstone of improving urban design. 

 Clever design of the urban environment holds the potential to concurrently and synergistically improve human health and promote environmental sustainability but at present most of our cities and towns lack the requisite infrastructure and investment. As demonstrated by the Amsterdam case study, a combination of persistent grassroots pressure and bold top-down leadership is likely required to effect change in such a space, but the intersectoral payoff from such a paradigm shift constitutes an undisputably worthwhile cause.

T Michniewicz, 09/09/19

Reference

1. World Health Organization (2019) ‘Urbanization trends’[online]. Regional office for South East Asia. Available from: <http://www.searo.who.int/entity/health_situation_trends/data/chi/unbanization-trends/en/> [Accessed: 09/09/2019].

2. Van Der Zee, R (2015) ‘How Amsterdam became the bicycle capital of the world’. The Guardian. Available from: <https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2015/may/05/amsterdam-bicycle-capital-world-transport-cycling-kindermoord> [Accessed: 09/09/2019].

3. Kirschbaum, E (2019) ‘Copenhagen has taken bicycle commuting to a whole new level’. Los Angeles Times. Available from: <https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2019-08-07/copenhagen-has-taken-bicycle-commuting-to-a-new-level> [Accessed: 09/09/2019].

4. Global Designing Cities Initiative (2019) ‘Pedestrian only streets: case study Stroget, Copenhagen’ [website]. Available from: <https://globaldesigningcities.org/publication/global-street-design-guide/streets/pedestrian-priority-spaces/pedestrian-only-streets/pedestrian-streets-case-study-stroget-copenhagen/> [Accessed: 09/09/2019].

5. Currie, G and Stanley, J (2006) ‘Investigating links between social capital and public transport’. Transport Reviews. 28(4): 529-547. DOI: 10.1080/01441640701817197. Available from: <https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01441640701817197> [Accessed: 09/09/2019].

6. Hansson, E, Mattisson, K, Bjork, J, Ostergren, P and Jakobsson, K (2011) ‘Relationship between commuting and health outcomes in a cross-sectional population survey in southern Sweden’. BMC Public Health. 11:834. DOI: Available from: <https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2458-11-834> [Accessed: 09/09/2019].

7. Black, C (2019) ‘Air pollution’ [website]. World Health Organization. Available from: <https://www.who.int/sustainable-development/cities/health-risks/air-pollution/en/> [Accessed: 09/09/2019].

8. Neiderud, C (2015) ‘How urbanization affects the epidemiology of emerging infectious diseases’. Infection Ecology & Epidemiology. 5(1). DOI: 10.3402/iee.v5.27060. Available from: <https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4481042/> [Accessed: 09/09/2019].

9. Berg, N (2016) ‘As cities grow more crammed and connected, how will we discourage the spread of disease?’ [website]. Ensia.com. Available from: <https://ensia.com/features/as-cities-grow-diseases-spread-faster-and-urban-design-key/> [Accessed: 09/09/2019].

10. World Health Organization (2019) ‘Nutrition insecutiry and unhealthy diets’ [website]. Available from: <https://www.who.int/sustainable-development/cities/health-risks/nutrition-insecurity/en/> [Accessed: 09/09/2019].

11. Christian, T (2012) ‘Trade-offs between commuting time and health-related activities’. Journal of Urban Health. 89(5): 746-757. DOI: 10.1007/s11524-012-9678-6. Available from: <https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11524-012-9678-6> [Accessed: 09/09/2019].

12. Taylor, A (2019) ‘Why Sydney’s urban sprawl is harmful to your health’. The Sydney Morning Herald. Available from: <https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/why-sydney-s-urban-sprawl-is-harmful-to-your-health-20190906-p52os0.html> [Accessed: 09/09/2019].

13. Gallagher, P (2001) ‘The environmental, social, and cultural impacts of sprawl’. Natural Resources & Environment. 15(4): 219-223. Available from: <http://www.jstor.org/stable/40924406> [Accessed: 09/09/2019].

14. Frumkin, H (2002) ‘Urban sprawl and public health’. Public Health Reports. 117(1): 201-217. Available from: <https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/8e5f/c4b34a20cfea33061313de1c9568342f4855.pdf> [Accessed: 09/09/2019].

15. Garden, F and Jalaludin, B (2008) ‘Impact of urban sprawl on overweight, obesity, and physical activity in Sydney, Australia’. Journal of Urban Health. 86(1): 19-30. Available from: <https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11524-008-9332-5> [Accessed: 09/09/2019].

16. Environmental Commissioner of Ontario (2019) ‘Urban sprawl: the road to gridlock’ chapter in 2019 Energy Conservation Progress Report. Office of the Auditor General of Ontario. Available from: <https://docs.assets.eco.on.ca/reports/energy/2019/why-energy-conservation-04.pdf> [Accessed: 09/09/2019].

17. Chandrabose, M, Rachele, J, Kavanagh, A, Owen, N, Turrell, G, Giles-Corti, B and Sugiyama, T (2019) ‘Built environment and cardio-metabolic health: systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal studies. Obesity Reviews. 20(1):41-54. DOI: 10.1111/obr.12759. Available from: <https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30253075> [Accessed: 09/09/2019].

18. Department of Health and Social Care, Welsh Government, Department of Health, Scottish Government (2019) ‘UK chief medical officers’ physical activity guidelines’. UK Government. Available from: <https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/829841/uk-chief-medical-officers-physical-activity-guidelines.pdf> [Accessed: 09/09/2019].

19. Shephard, R (2012) ‘Is active commuting the answer to population health?’. Sports Medicine. 38(9):751-758. DOI: 10.2165/00007256-200838090-00004. Available from: <https://link.springer.com/article/10.2165/00007256-200838090-00004> [Accessed: 09/09/2019].

20. Maibach, E, Steg, L and Anabele, J (2009) ‘Promoting physical activity and reducing climate change: opportunities to replace short car trips with active transportation’. Preventive Medicine. 49(4):326-327. DOI: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2009.06.028. Available from: <https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0091743509003326> [Accessed: 09/09/2019].

21. Bourne, G, Steffen, W and Stock, P (2018) ‘Waiting for the green light: transport solutions to climate change’. Climate Council, Australia. Available from: <https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/transport-climate-change/> [Accessed: 09/09/2019].

22. Duffhues, J and Bertolini, L (2015) ‘From integrated aims to fragmented outcomes: urban intensification and transportation planning in the Netherlands’. The Journal of Transport and Land Use. 9(3): 15-34. DOI: 10.5198/jtlu.2016.571. Available from: <https://www.jtlu.org/index.php/jtlu/article/download/571/811> [Accessed: 09/09/2019].

23. Dalton, R (2019) ‘Making cities more walkable by understanding how other people influence our journeys’. The Conversation. Available from: < https://theconversation.com/making-cities-more-walkable-by-understanding-how-other-people-influence-our-journeys-111767> [Accessed: 09/09/2019].

24. Robson, K, Gharehbaghi, K and Scott-Young, C (2018) ‘Planning effective and efficient public transport systems’. International Journal of Real Estate and Land Planning. Vol. 1.

25. Brody, S (2013) ‘The characteristics, causes, and consequences of sprawling development patterns in the United States’[online]. Nature Education Knowledge. 4(5):2. Available from: <https://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/the-characteristics-causes-and-consequences-of-sprawling-103014747/> [Accessed: 09/09/2019].

26. Bambrick, H, Capon, A, Barnett, B, Beaty, M and Burton, A (2011) ‘Climate change and health in the urban environment: adaptation opportunities in Australian cities’. Asia Pacific Journal of Public Health. 23(2). DOI: 10.1177/1010539510391774. Available from: <https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1010539510391774> [Accessed: 09/09/2019].

27. Greenspan, E (2016) ‘Top-down, bottom-up urban design’. The New Yorker. Available from: <https://newyorker.com/business/currency/top-down-bottom-up-urban-design> [Accessed: 09/09/2019].

Protecting Places

Pre-eminent biologist and ecologist EO Wilson is credited for championing the proposition of a half-earth (1); dedicating 50% of the planet toward conservation of life, the preservation of ecosystems, habitat conservation, and buffering of CO2 emissions. This is simply to scratch the surface, and potential benefits might be considered from any number of environmental, health, economic, and social capital perspectives. The preservation of biodiversity and functional nature reserves is predicated on connected and confluent wilderness areas that incorporate and connect entire ecosystems, in the form of wildlife corridors or otherwise (2,3); in any case reaching beyond simply the presence of isolated parks, sporadic urban green spaces, and nature strips. These large-scale biological ecosystems required to harbour biodiverse life can be considered as representing complex systems (4), demonstrating complex, dynamic interactions present on multiple levels, and complex systems phenomenon – feedback, nonlinearity, emergence (5,12). More imaginative conceptualisations proposed by such polymaths as James Lovelock include the Gaia hypothesis (6), which deals with the entire earth as a homeostatic entity and active adaptive control system that demonstrates properties not predictable from the sum of its parts (6), essentially describing characteristics akin to emergence (12).  The relevance of this model is such that loss of particular predator species in a food web can lead to monopolisation of important, limiting resources such that ecosystems lose diversity (7). On the same wavelength, Levin (5) describes the existence of keystone functional groups, comprised of a small set of species upon which critical ecosystem processes rely. In these complex biological systems, the loss of one species can spiral in unpredictable and devastating ways to the ultimate demise of entire ecosystems. And the mechanistic basis for this is intuitive enough to model, such that in any kind of food web, loss of critical species can lead to cascading secondary extinctions with great consequence (8). Like many, I express much scepticism for the biological utility of the scant and detached manmade parks, green areas, and nature strips – fundamentally disparate from nature, paralleling the simplified and exogenously imposed structures as seen in agriculture and forestry. Such natural artifice has been rebuked by Levin and others for their non-functionality, aberrance, and fundamental lack of heterogeneity, considered essential to ecological adaptation (5). If current patterns are to continue, of seemingly boundless destruction of native forests (9) and feeble non-attempts at preserving green spaces in and around cities (10), biodiversity losses will be inordinate (13). And above this dizzying issue of wilderness loss in absolute numbers, it is the patterns of loss and patterns of protection that become important. In this complex biological system, a critical but underappreciated feature of ecosystem health is ecological interactions, the loss of which can precede species loss (11). Described by Valiente-Banuet and colleagues, environmental destruction and fragmentation means species are reduced to such scattered low-density populations that these crucial ecological interactions are lost, ultimately leading to species extinction and ecosystem decay (11). Thus the functionality and health of ecosystems is dependent on both their components and interactions.

Shunning the silent, ever-pervasive pre-ecological collapse nihilism, and the trappings of judicious commentary without concurrent action, a model for the task may be two-fold: including preservation of existing ecosystems and natural landscapes, and the gradual restoration of existing environments to foster biodiversity. The approaches are complementary, and encouragingly, starting to take form in various models around the globe.

·       Greening Australia (environment restoration)            https://www.greeningaustralia.org.au

·       Half-Earth Project (environment and biodiversity)      https://www.half-earthproject.org

·       Wyss Foundation (habitat protection)                      https://www.wyssfoundation.org

Additionally, the impacts of individual conservation efforts and crowdfunded projects is not to be discounted, with promising stories emerging from collaborative efforts to protect natural places.

·       Crowdfunded land given to public (NZ)        https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-36759321

T Michniewicz, August 2019

Reference

1. Hiss, T (2014) ‘Can the world really set aside half of the planet for wildlife?’. Smithsonian Magazine (online). Available from: <https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/can-world-really-set-aside-half-planet-wildlife-180952379/?no-ist> [Accessed: 20/03/2019].

2. Lindenmayer, D and Nix, H (1993) ‘Ecological principles for the design of wildlife corridors’. Conservation Biology. 7(3): 627-631.

3. Liu, C, Newell, G, White, M and Bennett, A (2018) ‘Identifying wildlife corridors for the restoration of regional habitat connectivity: a multispecies approach and comparison of resistance surfaces’. PLOS ONE (online). DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0206071. Available from: <https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0206071> [Accessed 31/03/2019].

4. Ladyman, J, Lambert, J and Wiesner, K (2013) ‘What is a complex system?’. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 3(1): 33-67. DOI: 10.1007/s13194-012-0056-8.

5. Levin, S (1998) ‘Ecosystems and the biosphere as complex adaptive systems’. Ecosystems. 1(1): 431-436. Princeton University. New Jersey.

6. Lovelock, J and Margulis, L (1974) ‘Atmospheric homeostasis by and for the biosphere: the gaia hypothesis’. Tellus. 26(1): 2-10. DOI: 10.340/tellus.v26i1-2.9731.

7. Paine, R (1966) ‘Food web complexity and species diversity’, The American Naturalist. 100(910): 65-75. Available from: <http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0003-0147%28196601%2F02%29100%3A910%3C65%3AFWCASD%3E2.0.CO%3B2-D> [Accessed 31/03/2019].

8. Dunne, J and Williams, R (2009) ‘Cascading extinctions and community collapse in model food webs’. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 364(1524). DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2008.0219. 

9. Slezak, M (2018) ‘Global deforestation hotspot: 3m hectares of Australian forest to be lost in 15 years’. The Guardian. 4 March (online). Available from: <https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/mar/05/global-deforestation-hotspot-3m-hectares-of-australian-forest-to-be-lost-in-15-years> [Accessed: 31/03/2019].

10. McKenny, L (2016) ‘Sydney’s green spaces to get squeezed as city’s population swells’. The Sydney Morning Herald. 7 May (online). Available from: <https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/sydneys-green-spaces-to-get-squeezed-as-citys-population-swells-20160505-gomxdv.html> [Accessed 31/03/2019].

11. Valiente-Banuet, A, Aizen, M, Alcantara, J, Arroyo, J, Cocucci, A, Galetti, M, Garcia, M, Garcia, D, Gomez, J, Jordano, P, Medel, R, Navarro, L, Obeso, J, Oviedo, R, Ramirez, N, Rey, P, Traveset, A, Verdu, M and Zamora, R. (2014) ‘Beyond species loss: the extinction of ecological interactions in a changing world’. Functional Ecology. 29(3): 299-307. DOI: 10.1111/1365-2435.12356.

12. Levin, S (2005) ‘Self-organisation and the emergence of complexity in ecological systems’. BioScience. 55(12): 1075-1079. DOI: 10.1641/0006-3568(2005)055[1075:SATEOC]2.0.CO;2.

13. Kilvert, N (2017) ‘Australia among seven nations responsible for more than 50 percent of global biodiversity loss’. ABC News [online]. Available from: <https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2017-10-26/australia-biodiversity-loss-conservation/8987696> [Accessed: 07/08/2019].

Climate Change: Underreported and Under-Actioned

Key points summary:

• Temporal and geographical dispersion of the effects of climate change has led to a lack of measurable or hence quantifiable short-term outcomes.

• The dispersion of responsibility and outcomes across different sectors has caused dilution of concern

• Similar dispersion of benefits from tackling climate change has lead to undervalued outcomes by traditional approaches and economic analysis

So I wanted to begin by describing a contrasting example from a quite unrelated field in a roundabout way of illustrating ways in which climate change has historically been an insidious and somewhat nebulous entity. The pathophysiology of a myocardial infarction, or heart attack, in its broadest sense, is as easily appreciated and quantified in investigations, as it is direct and immediate in consequences. At its rawest and simplest, the flow of oxygen rich blood is obstructed by clot and downstream tissues experience ischaemia, infarction, and cell death (a type 1 MI at least). In this, a negative health outcome is observed to arise directly and immediately from a mechanically conceptualised biological process. The reductionist, hard science, first principles, biochemistry side of our brains is of course very satisfied with this cause and effect equation. Such processes lend themselves to investigation, with readily observable and quantifiable short-term outcomes, such that research was already airborne by the time of the 1867 studies of Bezold and Breymann (1). It wouldn’t be for almost a century until the ‘causes of the causes’ (2) for ischaemic heart disease were beginning to be investigated, with the first results from landmark trials such as the Framingham heart study not coming into publication until 1957 (3). The critical importance of such trials was that they explored relationships and associations that would never be amenable to direct observation (4), achieved through what really was the pioneering use of epidemiological methodology - the pertinent point being consideration of big picture experimental findings; empiricism above the reductionist and mechanistic.  And as noted by Dawber et al. in 1951 (4), the findings of Framingham were of considerable practical importance, being highly usable and able to inform both health policy and practice. We can see that the findings of this study remain not only relevant today, but genuinely underpin the evidence-based and nationally deployed approaches to cardiovascular risk management (5).

In stark contrast to this exists climate change - diffuse, scarcely quantifiable, and indirect-acting, it is composed of all the requisite elements for it to be overlooked, mismanaged, ignored, and similarly, that should any watered-down responsibility for counteraction arise it would be so broadly dispersed as to become trivial at any actionable level. Ultimately, there are any number of reasons why climate change, and similar broad-reaching issues may remain under appreciated and under-acted-upon, with speculation that key factors include the diffuse nature of both negative climate outcomes and benefits from climate action, as expounded below. This is to say that phenomenon such as global warming by their very nature remain insidious and difficult to address because their effects, the responsibility for their effects, the responsibility to take action, and the benefits that might arise from taking action, are all innately global and diffuse; temporally, geographically, and intersector-ally if you will. Additionally, the investigation and public communication of findings related to changes in a changing system, represents an appreciable challenge to any attempts at lay appreciation of the subject.

So global warming represents a long-term challenge, and as a phenomenon, one that fundamentally cannot be appreciated nor quantified by the day-to-day individualistic observation of weather (20).  The effects of global warming are temporally dispersed over decades, and affect a system which is inherently cyclic and changing. Placing aside extreme meteorological events and experiences of those living near the arctic, the effects of global warming do not lend themselves to noticing by any casual observer, certainly to no point of prompting independently-motivated measurement or investigation. The same is true for a geographical component, and remains present today. The majority of urbanised landscapes where humans reside are relatively shielded from the effects of climate change. There are no seasonal migrations, no glaciers, and no river deltas by which to gauge long-term change. These locations tend to be fairly stable with respect to extreme weather events, whether by their initial selection as ideal for settlements or later by human engineering (à la Dubai), and because of this, few areas of the globe, especially those with large urban-living human populations, are (yet) to be so disproportionately affected by climate change as to be directly and undeniably observable on an individual level. Although this preceding statement around where most humans live is both factually incorrect and insensitive from a highly-westernised and urbanised perspective, this reason underscores the very decision for its inclusion. The adverse, individual, community, and society level effects of global warming already surround us, but regrettably, are seen outside view of the western media world, in smaller nations (6), readily in places like Bangladesh (7), Kiribati (8), Iceland (9). The issues facing each location affected by climate change (and locations yet to be), are often unique and intersectoral, or perhaps more appropriately, trans-sectoral. Industries such as fishing and overall ocean-based food security is threatened (10), along with tourism based around fragile ecosystems (11), ski resorts (12), and worldwide agriculture (13) with food security already far more jeopardised than is perhaps appreciated.

We see climate change is concealed over geographical space, over time, across many different sectors, and in systems already remarkable for randomness and changeability. We can expect the impact to be similarly dispersed over many sectors, and with anticipated flow-on effects that will leave few, if any, industries unscathed. The same factors obfuscating the presence of climate change are the same factors that underscore, in part, the lack of effective action we have witnessed to date.

Traditional approaches toward quantification of anticipated benefits, costs, and outcomes, and the manner in which these are weighted, are fundamentally not suited towards approaching long-term global issues such as climate change. Taking examples such as a simple traditional economic analysis, cost-benefit, cost-utility, or otherwise; these forms of analysis are not suited to handling long-term, intersectoral, difficult to quantify, and otherwise diffuse forms of costs or benefits (14). The argument presented is not that a suitably broad, encompassing and inclusive, time-horizon, well designed, and intersectorally respectful analysis would yield no value in dealing with issues arising from global warming; it is that the majority of such analyses undertaken before now have not. The kinds of analyses used by businesses, organisations, and government bodies on a day-to-day basis, used to inform and craft the policies and legislation leading to the position in which we now find ourselves. They simply weren’t designed with carbon emissions in mind. 

As imagined, just as the effects of global warming are diffused, as too are potential benefits arising from climate change action. Although well described in important metrics and with benefits on an individual scale (15), climate change action will likely yield benefit for entire populations – but not economic benefit for any specific sector, organisation, or entity. Therein lies some of the challenge in tackling the creation of effective policies for climate change; it is in everyone’s interest but no specific entity, for profit at least, with the scale and means to invest heavily in the issue, stands to individually profit from such an enterprise. Freeloading off another entity’s commitment to reduced carbon emissions, with respect to the passive benefits incurred from climate change action, might be seen however to be the best of both worlds; of benefits without sacrifice. And this potential point is why definite, enforced government legislation represents the backbone of a strong climate policy. We need to witness diligent leadership at the top that is respectful to the unambiguous evidence base on global warming, carried forth with the spine and steadfast resolution to affect truly meaningful legislative reform.

In concluding, just one of the great points of sadness from this ongoing catastrophe is that those individuals, communities, and populations most susceptible to the seemingly unstoppable march of global warming are also the smallest contributors to global emissions (16), and the least well placed to affect the level of global change necessary to halt its progression (17,18,19).

 T Michniewicz, August 2019

NB: Use of the terms climate change compared to global warming is not well respected by this article, which includes their employment in an indiscriminate and interchangeable manner.

Reference

1. Miller, J and Matthews, S (1909) ‘Effect on the heart of experimental obstruction of the left coronary artery’. Archives of Internal Medicine. III(5), 476. doi: 10.1001/archinte.1909.00050160109009.

2. Marmot, M (2017) ‘Inclusion health: addressing the causes of the causes’. The Lancet. 391(10117): 186-188.

3. Mahmood, S, Levy, D, Vasan, R and Wang, T (2014) ‘The Framingham heart study and the epidemiology of cardiovascular diseases: a historical perspective’. The Lancet. 383(9921): 999-1008. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61752-3.

4. Dawber, T, Meadors, G and Moore, F (1951) ‘Epidemiological approaches to heart disease: the Framingham study’. American Journal of Public Health and the Nation’s Health. 41(3): 279-286. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32848-9.

5. National Vascular Disease Prevention Alliance (2012) ‘Guidelines for the management of absolute cardiovascular disease risk’. National Stroke Foundation. Publication Approval: National Health and Medical Research Council, Australian Government. 

6. World Health Organization (2018) ‘Climate change increasingly affects small countries’ [online]. Available from: <http://www.euro.who.int/en/countries/iceland/news/news/2018/6/climate-change-increasingly-affects-small-countries> [Accessed: 20/04/2019].

7. Glennon, R (2017) ‘The unfolding tragedy of climate change in Bangladesh’. Scientific American. 21 April 2017. Available from: <https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/the-unfolding-tragedy-of-climate-change-in-bangladesh/> [Accessed: 20/04/2019].

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