The calamity of a collapsing climate

The further from the data, the easier to convince ourselves we are turning the tide on climate change.

But we’re barely in the fight.

Earlier this year, world-renowned conservationist David Attenborough joined the social media platform Instagram on a mission to encourage the world to take serious collective action on unfolding ecological, biodiversity, and climate crises (1,2). All the while, it appears important actors in key political or industry positions are content making insignificantly small steps - superficially appearing responsible, but often undone entirely by harmful activities elsewhere, effectively greenwashing, distracting, and stalling (3,4,6). As a global society we are beginning to re-learn the painful lesson that individualistic self-interested activity enacted at-scale does not amount to the best result for all; a tragedy of the commons.

The false comfort offered by those declaring how much time we still have to act rings empty. Whilst avoidance of climatic catastrophe remains theoretically possible in a physical sense, this closing window of opportunity does not necessarily admit the current inertia present at sociological, cultural, infrastructure, and broad structural levels. As decisive, effective action on emissions is delayed by successive administrations, ‘kicking the can down the road’, the drawdown of emissions necessary to avoid catastrophic warming currently weaved into best-case climate models begins to look increasingly impossible (Figure 1 Andrew, R 2020; and Figure 2 Hausfather 2018).

Emissions budget from IPCC (Andrew, 2020) (18)

Modelling ‘pathways’ (SSPs) for possible futures based on different emissions scenarios (Hausfather and Peters, 2020) (19)

Collectively, we have neither the physical infrastructure nor emotional preparedness to undertake the swift transition to low-carbon living fundamental to avoiding the climatological and sociological feedback loops and so called tipping points that would push us over the edge. Posited in bludgeoningly on-the-nose terms by Roberts (2015), “Is it possible in models? Yes. Is it possible IRL? [in real life]”(7). As action is delayed, global warming progresses and worsens, such that ever more heroic efforts would be required to achieve even modest constraints on temperature increases or to protect remnant ecosystems (8). Each idle moment sees the metaphorical horse bolt further and further into what threatens to become the sunset of our planet.

Perhaps the most devastating characteristic of climate catastrophe is that it does not feel like a climate catastrophe, and is for the most part, something only revealed in data, charts, and graphics - debatably invisible in many ways (13). Shy of witnessing the terminal manifestations of climate disaster, all grim prognostic indicators of impending catastrophe are readily evidenced in crumbling ice sheets, mass coral bleaching, raging wildfires, far-reaching desertification, mass migration, and population displacement.

To understand this challenge we can look at why climate change is characterised as a ‘wicked problem’. That is one of unfathomable complexity, reaching across multiple sectors and industries, across countries and continents, one with no simple nor quick solutions, one not amenable to trial-and-error problem solving, characterised by inherent uncertainty and unknowns, one which is new and unique - without precedent and for which we cannot reason by analogy, one inextricably bound to other issues like ecosystem health, population health, and resource depletion, and one involving a plethora of stakeholders with irreconcilable differences of opinion on what can, or what should be done (9, 10). Further compounding this is the often overlooked challenge of managing simultaneous budgetary demands for climate change mitigation and adaptation alongside the high cost of increasingly frequent natural disasters and extreme weather events (11, 12). Each time a bushfire, flood, or heatwave should impact a community, scarce resources are necessarily diverted to protect life and limb, provide emergency relief, and ultimately rebuild - diminishing the resources that could be committed to climate mitigation and adaptation. This dilemma is not dissimilar to that faced by health systems who balance upstream investment in preventative medicine with downstream investment in emergency care. Buying into upstream care yields returns in preventing disease, but diverts resources that could otherwise treat current cases. This budgetary challenge is well illustrated in the Climate Adaptation webgame created by Miguel Padrinan (2015) <https://www.smhi.se/en/climate/education/adaptation-game-1.153788>, showing the impossible trade-offs that must be made managing a city’s future in the setting of a changing climate.

“The horizon for monetary policy extends out to 2-3 years. For financial stability it is a bit longer, but typically only to the outer boundaries of the credit cycle – about a decade. In other words, once climate change becomes a defining issue for financial stability, it may already be too late.“ - Mark Carney (5)

Effective policy necessitates action on disaster relief alongside adaptation and mitigation directed at the biggest drivers of carbon emissions. In greenwashing and tokenistic climate policy (3,4), the objective reality of rising atmospheric CO2 (14, 15), glacial melting (16), and an escalator of (species) extinction (17) stand as evidence to the contrary, and a testament to the failure of present day interventions.

What we require most is bold and brave leadership alongside financial commitment in both public and private sectors to bring into existence a de-carbonised future that supports human, ecosystem, and planetary health alike.

“Why is climate change faster than we are? The only possible answer is that we still lack strong leadership to take the bold decisions needed to put our economies and societies on the path of low-carbon growth and climate-resilience.” - U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres (20)

T Michniewicz, 23/07/2021

Reference

1. Wood, V (2020) ‘David Attenborough says ‘humans have overrun the world’ as he issues climate warning. The Independent. 16 January. Available at: <https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/david-attenborough-film-life-our-planet-release-climate-change-biodiversity-a9285431.html> [Accessed: 03/05/2021].

2. Gregory, A (2020) ‘‘Human beings have overrun the world’: David Attenborough calls for an end to waste in impassioned plea to address climate change’. The Independent. 19 April. Available at: <https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/david-attenborough-life-planet-new-documentary-bbc-climate-crisis-coronavirus-a9472946.html> [Accessed: 03/05/2021].

3. Cames, M, Harthan, R, Fussler, J, Lazarus, M, Lee, C, Erickson, P and Spalding-Fecher, R (2016) ‘How additional is the clean development mechanism?’. Institute for Applied Ecology. Available at: <https://ec.europa.eu/clima/sites/clima/files/ets/docs/clean_dev_mechanism_en.pdf> [Accessed: 03/05/2021].

4. Vetter, D (2021) ‘Oil and coal firms guilty of ‘great deception’ through greenwashing, says climate lawyers’. Forbes. 19th April. Available at: <https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidrvetter/2021/04/19/oil-and-coal-firms-guilty-of-great-deception-through-greenwashing-say-climate-lawyers/?sh=7b470d418bb0> [Accessed: 03/05/2021].

5. Carney, M (2015) ‘Breaking the tragedy of the horizon - climate change and financial stability’[speech]. Governor of the Bank of England and Chairman of the Financial Stability Board, at Lloyd’s of London, London. 29 September. Transcript available at: <https://www.bis.org/review/r151009a.pdf> [Accessed: 10/06/2021].

6. Barratt, L (2020) ‘BP spends ‘low carbon’ money on finding and using fossil fuels’[online]. Unearthed. 2nd August. Available at: <https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2020/08/02/bp-low-carbon-venture-capital-spent-on-fossil-fuels/>

7. Roberts, D (2015) ‘The awful truth about climate change no one wants to admit’. Vox. 15th May. Available at: <https://www.vox.com/2015/5/15/8612113/truth-climate-change> [Accessed: 03/05/2021].

8. Thiagarajan, K (2020) ‘The divers rescuing a drowning island’ [online]. BBC: Future Planet. 3rd February. Available at: <https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200131-the-divers-trying-to-save-indias-vaan-island-from-sinking> [Accessed: 03/05/2021].

9. Stang, G and Ujvari, B (2015) ‘Climate change as a ‘wicked problem’. European Union Institute for Security Studies. November. 52(1). Available at: <https://www.iss.europa.eu/sites/default/files/EUISSFiles/Alert_52_Climate_change.pdf> [Accessed: 03/05/2021].

10. World Bank (2014) ‘A wicked problem: controlling global climate change’. World Bank Group. 30th September. Available at: <https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2014/09/30/a-wicked-problem-controlling-global-climate-change> [Accessed: 03/05/2021].

11. Ebi, K, Vanos, J, Baldwin, J, Bell, J, Hondula, D, Errett, N, Hayes, K, Reid, C, Saha, S, Spector, J and Berry, P (2021) ‘Extreme weather and climate change: population health and health system implications’. Annual Review of Public Health. 42:293-315. DOI:10.1146/annurev-publhealth-012420-105026.

12. Trenberth, K, Fasullo, J and Shepherd, T (2015) ‘Attribution of climate extreme events’. Nature Climate Change. 5:725-730. Available at: <https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2657>

13. Rudiak-Gould, P (2013) ‘“We have seen it with our own eyes”: why we disagree about climate change visibility’. Weather, Climate, and Society. 5(2):120-132. DOI:10.1175/WCAS-D-12-00034.1

14. Stein, T (2021) ‘Despite pandemic shutdowns, carbon dioxide and methane surged in 2020’. NOAA Research News. 7th April. Oceanic and Atmospheric Research. Available at: <https://research.noaa.gov/article/ArtMID/587/ArticleID/2742/Despite-pandemic-shutdowns-carbon-dioxide-and-methane-surged-in-2020> [Accessed: 03/05/2021].

15. Carrington, D (2020) ‘Covid-19 lockdown will have ‘negligible’ impact on climate crisis - study’. The Guardian. 7th August. Available at: <https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/aug/07/covid-19-lockdown-will-have-negligible-impact-on-climate-crisis-study> [Accessed: 03/05/2021].

16. Hugonnet, R, McNabb, R, Berthier, E, Menounos, B, Nuth, C, Girod, L, Farinotti, D, Huss, M, Dussaillant, I, Brun, F and Kaab, A (2021) ‘Accelarated global glacier mass loss in the early twenty-first century'. Nature. 592;726-731. Available at: <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03436-z> [Accessed: 03/05/2021].

17. Conniff, R (2018) ‘Escalator to extinction: how mountain species are imperiled by warming’. Yale Environment 360. 13th November. Available at: <https://e360.yale.edu/features/escalator-to-extinction-can-mountain-species-adapt-to-climate-change> [Accessed: 03/05/2021].

18. Andrew, R (2020) ‘Figures from the global carbon budget 2020’[webpage]. Available at: <https://folk.universitetetioslo.no/roberan/GCB2020.shtml> [Accessed: 03/05/2021].

19. Hausfather, Z and Peters, G (2020) ‘Emissions - the ‘business as usual’ story is misleading’[online]. Nature articles. 29th January. Available at: <https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00177-3> [Accessed: 03/05/2021].

20. Jordans, F (2018) ‘UN chief blasts lack of ‘strong leadership’ on climate’[online]. AP News. 26th September. Available at: <https://apnews.com/article/2cb2ab83b0314225bd1b75da02fd8de7> [Accessed: 03/05/2021].

Global Monitoring Laboratory (2021) ‘Trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide’[online]. Earth System Research Laboratories. Available at: <https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/> [Accessed: 23/07/2021].

If we don't do this there will be nothing left to save

“Despite all our achievements, we owe our existence to a six-inch layer of topsoil and the fact that it rains”

Farm equipment association of Minnesota and South Dakota

We see ourselves as separate from nature; uniquely blessed, bestowed, or chanced with intelligence, reasoning, and communication skills that facilitate limitless mastery over our environment and circumstances through technology, ingenuity, and collaboration. The hubris with which our species carries this unfounded entitlement to shape, destroy, and re-mould the earth to suit our every desire, impulse, and vice is as arresting as it is disheartening. This mentality brazenly flaunts an inherited ability as though it were a heavenly-sanctioned right to power, granting the sweeping authority to expand, extract, and escape with impunity; like the haughty children of aristocrats who believe their blood bluer than that of anyone else.

In short, I worry our deliberate disconnectedness from nature fosters a mentality of devaluation and disregard; the baseless hubris of our species’ dominion providing the moral licensing for this disrespect; and, in a cycle of cruel irony, that this very degradation of the natural world diminishes and extinguishes the very character that makes it so valuable (1).

When the environment is seen only as an exploitable reserve comprised of constituent timber, coal, ore, and topsoil, then its exploitation is morally and legally sanctioned, and economically encouraged, resulting in the actual depreciation of the beauty, biodiversity, and climatologically functional of our shared environment.

And because of this I worry…

How can we demonstrate the value of the natural world and what is at stake to the disengaged or disinterested within this critical timeframe of our present anthropocene era?

How can we demonstrate its value, as more of it becomes more polluted and dismantled every moment?

At present, in my country of Australia, legislative foundations for environmental and biodiversity preservation are unable to provide the protection required to withstand emerging threats like climate change. Without reform, we may continue to see decline and extinction of our most threatened plants, animals, and ecosystems (2).

“We have this almost zombie-like system where the laws say you have to look after critically endangered, endangered and vulnerable species – and we know the community support protecting our threatened species – but when it comes to implementation, it’s like a giant machine that generates no action.” - Schneiders, L (5)

Present threats are so significant that even such species as the platypus, so unquestionably iconic to Australia’s identity and history in both Aboriginal and post-colonial times, is now placed at risk of extinction (3). This risk comes amid a broader context of advancing species extinction, with an unconscionable 34 Australian mammals now permanently wiped from planet earth (4), together colouring Australia with an international reputation for wildlife loss. Drivers such as land clearing for reasons like urban, forestry, and agricultural development (5,6), along with environmental degradation, invasive species (predators and weeds), fire, and climate change (6) are the chief factors behind species decline.

Furthermore, it is important to note that native plant species are in no way spared from this looming wave of extinction, with forces such as rapid urbanisation and land clearing (7) along with increasingly frequent bushfires (8) also representing present and large-scale threats for this kind of life.

In short, human activities continue to encroach on native ecosystems and consequently, much of the world’s biodiversity is being pushed into marked decline. On a global scale, massive human consumption and resource demands which far outstretches planetary boundaries is a key driver underscoring species extinction (9, 11). Additionally, global warming is already exerting a powerful effect on both plant and animal species adapted to an existence within a relatively stable and predictable climate. This is evidenced in phenomenon such as the ‘escalator to extinction’ wherein animals such as birds must ascend to live at higher and higher altitudes on an ever-warming planet, and ultimately risk losing all available habitat and becoming extinct (10).

At a global level, current measures are woefully inadequate with recent reports demonstrating a failure of countries to fully meet a single one of the 20 targets that were set forth in The United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity in Aichi, Japan in 2010 (11). Far from E. O. Wilson’s vision of a Half Earth, a paltry 15% of land and freshwater, and around 7% of ocean (11,12) is currently considered protected (made a qualifying statement as the very definition of ‘protected’ and its enforcement are open to interpretation).

“The CBD goals and targets are very biodiversity-focused, but they’re not necessarily owned by the agencies that deal with the drivers and pressures” - David Obura

So long as current human activities proceed without radical change, ecosystem loss and degradation and species extinction will follow, and the capacity for our environment to provide clean water, fertile soil, inspiration, and joy, will disappear along with it.

“They say pain makes people change. I can attest it is true. The pain and loss of this year has tested my personal resilience and reshaped my beliefs.

Last year, had I sat before you, I would have constructed a different statement. I would have urged Australia to commit to the important international targets of Paris and CBD[…] I sit here today prepared to say in public it is too late. Too late to continue as we are. Too late to continue with our old plans. And, I am done.

[…] I believed it before, but I know it now. We have run out of time. Climate change is already with us.“

- Dr Margi Prideaux (12)

T Michniewicz, 04/07/2021

Reference

1. Alberro, H (2019) ‘Humanity and nature are not separate - we must see them as one to fix the climate crisis’[online]. The Conversation. 18 September. Available at: <https://theconversation.com/humanity-and-nature-are-not-separate-we-must-see-them-as-one-to-fix-the-climate-crisis-122110> [Accessed: 26/04/2021].

2. Walmsley, R (2021) ‘Trajectory unsustainable: 10 key findings of the EPBC Act review final report’. Environmental Defenders Office. 4 February. Available at: <https://www.edo.org.au/2021/02/04/trajectory-unsustainable-10-key-findings-of-the-epbc-act-review-final-report/?fbclid=IwAR0yNPpIXKPsYH7Kje2gkS1eVvHIZmBYMoeme8rSBU-Lbj0PwEwsPcOn3i8> [Accessed: 09/06/2021].

3. Bino, G, Kingsford, R and Wintle, B (2020) ‘A stitch in time -synergistic impacts to platypus metapopulation extinction risk’. Biological Conservation. 242:108399. DOI:10.1016/j.bicon.2019.108399.

4. Foley, M (2021) ‘Australia’s share of extinct animals rises as list of the lost updated’[online]. Sydney Morning Herald. 3 March. Available at: <https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-s-climbs-the-list-of-wildlife-extinction-hotspots-20210303-p577dy.html> [Accessed: 10/06/2021].

5. Houston, D (2019) ‘Planning in the shadow of extinction: Carnaby’s Black cockatoos and urban development in Perth, Australia. Contemporary Social Science: Journal of the Academy of Social Sciences. 16(1). DOI:10.1080/21582041.2019.1660909.

6.Geyle, H, Tingley, R, Amey, A, Cogger, H, Couper, P, Cowan, M, Craig, M, Doughty, P, Driscoll, D, Ellis, R, Emery, J, Fenner, A, Gardner, M, Garnett, S, Gillespie, G, Greenlees, M, Hoskin, C, Keogh, S, Lloyd, R, Melville, J, McDonald, P, Michael, D, Mitchell, N, Sanderson, C, Shea, G, Sumner, J, Wapstra, E, Woinarski, J and Chapple, D (2021) ‘Reptiles on the brink: identifying the Australian terrestrial snake and lizard species most at risk of extinction’. Pacific Conservation Biology. 27:3-12. DOI:10.1071/PC20033.

7. Blair, J and Osmond, P (2020) ‘Employing green roofs to support endangered plant species: the Eastern suburbs banksia scrub in Australia’. Open Journal of Ecology. 10(3):99205. DOI:10.4236/oje.2020.103009.

8. Gallagher, R, Allen, S, Mackenzie, B, Yates, C, Gosper, C, Keith, D, Merow, C, White, M, Wenk, E, Maitner, B, He, K, Adams, V and Auld, T (2021) ‘High fire frequency and the impact of the 2019-2020 megafires on Australian plant diversity’. Diversity and Distributions. DOI:10.1111/ddi.13265.

9. Jones, J (2020) ‘‘Extinction: the facts’: Attenborough’s new documentary is surprisingly radical’. The Conversation. 15th September. Available at: <https://theconversation.com/extinction-the-facts-attenboroughs-new-documentary-is-surprisingly-radical-146127> [Accessed: 03/05/2021].

10. Conniff, R (2018) ‘Escalator to extinction: how mountain species are imperiled by warming’. Yale Environment 360. 13th November. Available at: <https://e360.yale.edu/features/escalator-to-extinction-can-mountain-species-adapt-to-climate-change> [Accessed: 03/05/2021].

11. Zimmer, K (2020) ‘The world missed a critical deadline to safeguard biodiversity, UN report says’. National Geographic Science News. 15th September. Available at: <https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/world-missed-critical-deadline-to-safeguard-biodiversity-un-report?cmpid=org=ngp::mc=social::src=facebook::cmp=editorial::add=fb20200915science-UNbiodiversitydeadline::rid=&sf237776923=1&fbclid=IwAR0jkq4K5GeRApgwmWftt8M-Tcw3oDNyALQdWmsGh0aOKnYE82k4LHJmem0>

12. Giakoumi, S, McGowan, J, Mills, M, Beger, M, Bustamante, R, Charles, A, Christie, P, Fox, M, Garcia-Borboroglu, P, Gelcich, S, Guidetti, P, Mackelworth, P, Maina, J, McCook, L, Micheli, F, Morgan, L, Mumby, P, Reyes, L, White, A, Grorud-Colvert, K and Possingham, H (2018) ‘Revisiting “Succes” and “Failure” of Marine Protected Areas: A conservation scientist perspective”. Frontiers in Marine Science. 29th June. DOI:10.3389/fmars.2018.00223.

13. Prideaux, M (2020) ‘Statement to the Senate Inquiry into Australia’s faunal extinction crisis’. Available at: <http://wildpolitics.co/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Prideaux-M_SpeciesExtinctionInquiryStatement_ONLINE20200930.pdf> [Accessed: 11/06/2021].

uiImage reference: Global Monitoring Laboratory (2021) ‘Trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide’[online]. Earth System Research Laboratories. Available at: <https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/> [Accessed: 26/04/2021].